Seasonal Flood Forecasts and Warning Response Opportunities

This book will explore the feasibility of using ENSO-based forecasts and early warning systems to prevent losses from floods and droughts in Bangladesh. The primary audience will include academics and students, government policymakers, engineers, and business leaders. Despite advances in short-range flood forecasting and information dissemination systems in Bangladesh, the present system is less than satisfactory. This is due to short lead-time products, outdated dissemination networks, and lack of direct feedback from the end-user. One viable solution is to produce long-lead seasonal forecasts-the demand for which is significantly increasing in Bangladesh-and disseminate these products through appropriate channels. As observed in other regions, the success of seasonal forecasts, in contrast to short-term forecasts, depends on consensus among the participating institutions. Therefore, the primary objective of this book is to revisit and modify the framework of an ideal warning response system for issuance of consensus seasonal flood forecasts in Bangladesh. This book will discuss issues related to the 5-stage Flood Forecasts, Warning, and Response System (FFWRS) and emphasize the role of the seasonal 'Climate Outlook Forum (COF)' in Bangladesh. This book will also identify ways to improve forecasting and early warning systems by utilizing ENSO-based climate data and models, and discuss a comprehensive and participatory approach to seasonal flood hazard management in Bangladesh .