Operational Assessment of Space

Assessing effects is one of the biggest challenges the Air Force faces today. The Air Force has struggled with assessing air operations since they began dropping bombs, and the problem persists today. As problematic as the assessment of combat effects might be for air operations, the assessment of effects from space operations is even more difficult. This thesis uses a theoretical framework to better understand the problem and provide a framework for how the Air Force should address the issue of assessing space operations. By examining experiences from the use of airpower, specifically strategic bombing and close air support (CAS), the thesis will evaluate those lessons in terms fundamental to the issues of assessment. The answers gleaned from this analysis will help inform the Air Force on better methods for assessing space operations in the future. Operational assessment is the process of relating tactical tasks to operational effects. In the military, tactical tasks are developed with the "theory" that they will enable victory on the battlefield. The scientific method used in this thesis can serve the assessment community well by strengthening theories relating cause and effect and aid in the commander's judgment. This is the very purpose of operational assessment. The Air Force has historically focused on tactical assessments because it is inherently difficult to assess at the operational level.